Decision-Making Without
decydeWARE™

1.  Picking the factors to be used:

Faced with making a decision, the corporate decision-maker must decide what factors are relevant.

For example, what are the factors that contribute to investment risk?

1.  Picking the factors to be used:

The decision-maker chooses from the list, then enters the factors to be used.

2.  Setting the risk tolerance:

Corporate decisions can range all the way from very conservative to very speculative.  This is a matter of choice.

Decision-makers generally set the risk tolerance parameters intuitively.

2.  Setting the risk tolerance:

decydeWARE™ prompts the decision-maker to choose a risk tolerance level from a menu - anywhere from very conservative to very speculative.

Then decydeWARE™ sets predefined parameters for that risk tolerance level.  

3.  Choosing the logic:

The corporate decision-maker chooses the informal "if…then" logic to be used to arrive at a conclusion.  This logic can be based on experience and/or on knowledge or expertise. 

If experience or expertise is limited the decision-maker will only have one or two rules-of-thumb to reason with.  Some speculation will be required. 

3.  Choosing the logic:

decydeWARE™ uses the same informal, experience-based "if…then" logic.  The technology can reason with lots of rules.  Or, with very few, i.e. decydeWARE™ can extrapolate.  And do this with mathematical rigor.

4.  Collecting the evidence:

Next, the corporate decision-maker collects evidence on each of the factors. 

• Some of this evidence can be hard, i.e. precise, clear, unambiguous. 
• Some can be soft, i.e. imprecise, fuzzy, ambiguous. 
• Some can be encoded in numbers, i.e. quantitative, or statistical.
• Some can be encoded in words, i.e. verbal or written opinions, perceptions, hunches, points-of-view, intuition.

4.  Collecting the evidence:

decydeWARE™ provides a structured method for the decision-maker to collect and enter a mixture of soft and hard evidence, numbers and words.  

decydeWARE™ can also collect electronic information directly where it is available in databases, on LANs, or on the Internet. .

5.  Summing up the evidence:

Corporate decision-makers do much of the summing up in their heads.

They mentally combine the mixture of hard and soft information that they have collected, i.e. the opinions, perceptions, hunches, points-of-view, rumor, guesstimates, numbers and statistics.  And, form an opinion about the current situation.

For example, in our decision-maker's opinion, based on the evidence, "The market environment is poor."

5.  Summing up the evidence:

decydeWARE™ can compute with both numbers and words.  And, decydeWARE™ is not affected by moods or the time of day.

decydeWARE™ uses fuzzy arithmetic to do the summing up. The output is a consistent and mathematically rigorous assessment of the current situation. 

It may confirm or disconfirm the decision-maker's intuitive opinion.  

6.  Drawing the conclusions:

Decision-makers use professional judgement to draw conclusions. The reasoning is generally based on experience. 

Sometimes the current situation matches experience exactly, and the conclusions are easy. Sometimes the two do not match exactly, and some speculation is necessary.

The less experience and/or the weaker the evidence the more speculation is required.

For example, our decision-maker knows from experience that, "If the market environment is good, then the investment risk is low."  But the decision-maker's opinion is that "the market environment is poor."  Now our decision-maker must extrapolate to come to a conclusion about the investment risk.

6.  Drawing the conclusions:

Having aggregated the evidence, decydeWARE™ draws mathematically rigorous conclusions using fuzzy logic. And, it can do this even if there is only one rule-of-thumb to go on.

If the present does not match the past decydeWARE™ extrapolates conclusions, i.e. like people, it speculates.

decydeWARE™ draws consistent and mathematically rigorous conclusions about individual factors.

Or about combinations of these factors.

7.  Making the decision:

Finally, the corporate decision-maker decides on an action based on the conclusions about risk. "Invest? Or not?"

7.  Making the decision:

If required, decydeWARE™ can recommend a course of action based on the conclusions.

8.  Reporting the results:

Responsible corporate decision-making requires accountability. 

The decision-maker should be able to provide a written or verbal justification for the decision.

8.  Reporting the results:

decydeWARE™ provides a report on each factor, and on any combinations of factors, and provides a detailed paper trail. 

These reports include an accounting of the process

• the logic and risk tolerance used;
• the evidence and its sources.

And the results of the process:

• anecdotal conclusions;
• graphical profiles of these conclusions;
• recommendations, if required.